5 predictions for 2025 holiday shopping

Could it be that Americans are heading for the holiday season?

From faster delivery and cross-border purchase to the growth of small businesses and AI-Powed, the upcoming Christmas season promised to be bold and effective-at least that is what I predict.

Almost immediate satisfaction

Fast, free deliveries were so common that consumers would pick up or receive at least 35% of orders placed in November and December within 24 hours.

I assume several factors that control fast provision.

First, Amazon’s infrastructure prefers fast delivery. In urban areas, Amazon provides approximately 60% of first -class orders another day. Rural deliveries reduce the average, but the fulfillment of Amazon shipments will provide almost immediate purchase of satisfaction.

Second, buying online, picking up purchases in stores has grown quickly and, according to One Shopping, could soon restore 10% of the American electronic shop.

Canadian-American relations

Canadian shoppers are among the most active cross -border consumers around the world. In a given year, about half of the people north of the border trade in American electronic trade.

Despite tariffs, I believe that these shopping clothing is durable and beneficial. Canadian buyers blame shopping in American stores online for value and diversity. And the nations have been a friend too long to experience hosting the trade disruption.

In view of this, expect at least 55% of Canadian shoppers to make at least one holiday from US electronic stores in 2025.

The growth of small enterprises

I expect small, independent online retailers to grow by 10%in 2025, overcoming the overall performance of electronic trading and reaching about $ 15.5 billion on US holiday.

For comparison, shopife merchants generated approximately $ 11.5 billion during the holiday period during the holiday season. Etsy retailers have added about $ 2 billion.

Growth should come from small brands that sell craft or American products.

Ai shopping

During the top season of gifts, at least 50% of North American shoppers will be used to shop artificial intelligence. Consumers will chat, look for, look for recommendations and even make purchases using AI tools.

Last year, less than 15% of US shoppers consulted AI for holiday gifts, allegedly, but a lot has changed in a year. AI is present in almost every tool, included Google.

Therefore, the discovery of the AI product will probably be the best source of electronic trading operation in 2025.

Consume

Last year I was pessimistic about the growth of ecommerce in the US and it turned out in my unsuccessful predictions listed below. If I am going to catch this year, it will be too optimistic on the side.

The US stock market was well. For example, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index have recently hit a record maximum. The driver for this boom can be business optimism and solid earnings of the company.

I suspect that this enthusiasm will be transferred to holiday gifts in 2025. The key factor will be whether customers believe they can afford to spend.

Last year’s prediction

Sale 2013 I predicted trends and sales of electronic trading for the upcoming holiday season. In 2024 I was incorrect in four of my five predictions, so last year predicted my worst. Here are specific.

Mobile Commerce will have 54% sales of holiday electronic trading: correct. Adobe said the sales of US holidays on mobile devices reached $ 131.5 billion, which accounts for 54.4% of the total total number of online.

Ecomerce holidays are growing by 5%year -on -year: bad. Last year I was too pessimistic. I wrote that holiday forecasts, including one that indicates 23% growth in 2024, were “too optimistic, given the controversial American elections, inflation and other economic suffering”. Most resources set real growth at 8.7%.

E -mail grows a volume by 25% during the holiday season 2024: bad. This was more difficult to measure, but I’m probably a lady. Global e-mail volume increased by 4.3% in the fourth quarter according to multiple sources.

40% of the ZS gene uses social trade in this holiday season: wrong. Most estimates place the actual number at 32% for the ZS gene (aged 13 to 28), while an estimated 12% of all US consumers purchased social in 2024.

BNPL represents 9% of online holiday sales: bad. About 7.7% of the US holiday purchases in November and December 2024 were a shopping-tuned Later, representing $ 18.2 billion, for Adobe.